达拉斯联储行长洛根：认为仍需至少两次25个基点加息，以使政策适度具有限制性

Speech by President Lorie Logan

October 30, 2026

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivered these remarks on a visit to Davidson College.

Thank you, Professor [Fred] Smith, for that kind introduction. I’m delighted to be back at Davidson. This institution gave me a firm foundation for my career as an economic policymaker, and I hope it does the same for many of you.

Earlier this week, I participated in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington. Before we turn to our conversation on careers and leadership, I’d like to give you a brief update on the economic and monetary policy outlook. These are my views and not necessarily those of my FOMC colleagues.

Congress gave the FOMC a dual mandate. We set monetary policy to achieve both maximum employment and stable prices. Importantly, policy takes time to influence the economy. We therefore set policy based on where the economy is headed, not just where it is today. The Fed’s main monetary policy tool in normal circumstances is the target range for the federal funds rate. So, at our meetings, the FOMC assesses where employment and inflation are headed and debates whether and how to adjust the fed funds target range to best accomplish our mandated goals. I’ll walk you through how I approached that assessment at this week’s meeting, where I voted to maintain the current target range of 3.75 to 4 percent.

Economic growth is strong. Consumer spending is solid, especially among wealthier households that have benefited most from the soaring stock market. And business investment is robust. While data centers get the headlines, manufacturers, defense contractors and energy companies are also ramping up investment.

A growing economy creates jobs, and the labor market is balanced and perhaps tightening a bit. Unemployment continues to hover just above 4 percent. That is down slightly from late last year and close to most estimates of the lowest sustainable level. On average, employers are adding at least enough jobs each month to absorb trend growth in the labor force.

Although the labor market is balanced, it is not dynamic. Rapid technological change and geopolitical volatility have increased employers’ uncertainty about their future workforce needs. They don’t want to lose the people they have, but they don’t want to commit to new workers, either. Companies are slow to hire and slow to fire. This job market hurts new graduates just starting their careers and anyone who needs to find a job. As a country, we must ensure the labor market works well for everyone. Monetary policy, however, addresses cyclical mismatches between supply and demand. Monetary policy can’t fix structural problems such as employers’ uncertainties. My assessment is that the economy is achieving maximum employment and, supported by strong aggregate demand, remains on track to continue to do so.

Turning to price stability, the FOMC aims for an annual inflation rate of 2 percent as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures, or PCE. We have missed that goal for nearly six years. While inflation has come down from the post-pandemic peak, it is not yet headed all the way back to our target.

This is unacceptable. Higher prices drain the wallets of parents buying groceries to feed their kids and young people paying rent on their first apartments. Unpredictable increases in input costs make it more difficult for companies to plan investments and create jobs. And inflation burdens taxpayers who finance public services, schools and the national defense. We must restore price stability.

The FOMC targets the overall inflation rate, but headline inflation includes some volatile prices that aren’t good guides to what will happen in the future. Measures that drop these volatile prices or extreme price changes provide better signals of where overall inflation is likely to trend. For example, core PCE inflation excludes food and energy prices, which have relatively little predictive power for future overall inflation. Core PCE inflation was 3.1 percent over the 12 months through September, and higher for the most recent month. (Although these data were released the day after the FOMC meeting, accurate predictions based on other data series were available at the time of the meeting.) The data show broad price pressures across many goods and services, not just those affected by temporary factors such as tariffs and the energy shock. Other measures similarly indicate inflation is trending meaningfully higher than the FOMC’s 2 percent target.

When inflation trends too high while the labor market remains balanced, the FOMC is achieving only one of its two goals. How should monetary policy adjust to fix that?

Very few institutions, and no human beings that I know of, borrow or lend money at the fed funds rate. Car loans, mortgages and business debt all typically use long-term interest rates. The fed funds target range influences the economy by influencing these long-term interest rates and other broad financial conditions.

Financial conditions are currently providing a tailwind to the economy. Stocks, as I said, have risen notably this year. Credit spreads widened in recent weeks but remain compressed by historical standards. Banks remain eager to lend.

Long-term interest rates have risen significantly so far in 2026, nearly a full percentage point in the case of 10-year Treasury notes. But those higher long-term rates do not represent as much of a drag on the economy as you might expect. Rates rose mainly because investors expect stronger nominal growth and higher neutral interest rates. So, the higher market rates are more a message that investors believe monetary policy has work to do than an independent headwind for activity.

There are always risks to the economic outlook. Escalation or de-escalation of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East could change the path of energy prices, with implications for inflation and demand. Business investment could strengthen or falter as companies learn more about the uses of artificial intelligence and governments consider policies toward this potentially transformative technology. And forecasts of inflation and employment are always just forecasts; they come with uncertainty, and as a policymaker, I’m humble about my ability to predict the future.

But policymakers must make decisions in the face of uncertainty, with the information we have available. I anticipate that without any monetary policy restraint, inflation will continue to trend above target unless unexpected shocks occur. I currently estimate that the fed funds target range is at least 50 basis points—half a percentage point—below the level that would create some modest restriction and begin to bring the inflation trend back to target.

After raising the fed funds target range by 25 basis points in September, the FOMC skipped an increase at our meeting this week. Financial markets have been volatile in response to news on the technology investment outlook and geopolitical developments. In such an environment, adjusting policy more gradually can help households, businesses and market participants adapt to higher rates and reduce the risk that economic activity deteriorates more sharply than necessary. Moreover, as long as market participants understand the FOMC’s policy plans, the precise timing of each rate increase has little effect on the longer-term rates most borrowers pay.

And skipping a meeting does not change the monetary policy destination. Indeed, by making the destination clear, the FOMC can better help the economy adapt and obtain the promised benefits of a skip. It remains clear to me, given the current outlook, that the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases. After that, it would make sense in my view to pause and examine economic and financial developments to determine what further action may be appropriate. The end goal should be to make policy modestly restrictive so we can sustainably deliver both maximum employment and stable prices. Of course, I will change my policy views if the economic outlook and risks change.

Thank you. I look forward to our conversation on careers and leadership.

Note

I am grateful to Sam Schulhofer-Wohl for assistance in preparing these remarks.

Lorie Logan is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.