达拉斯联储预测德州2026年就业增长0.9%，年末就业人数将达1,450万
Texas Employment Forecast
达拉斯联储的德州就业预测显示，2026年就业将增长0.9%，80%置信区间为0.6%至1.2%，预计全年增加134,000个岗位，12月就业人数为1,450万。德州9月就业按年率下降1.6%，减少18,900个岗位；年初至今就业增长放缓至0.8%，8月增幅上修至2.3%。9月多数行业就业减少，制造业和信息服务业增加就业；德州领先指数在截至9月的三个月内上升。
材料给出德州全年就业增长预测及9月就业变化，并列出行业和领先指数的不同贡献。
October 19, 2026
Note: This Texas Employment Forecast was delayed from its scheduled Oct. 16 release due to data processing issues.
The Texas Employment Forecast projects jobs will increase 0.9 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.6 to 1.2 percent. Based on an average of four models that include projected U.S. gross domestic product, oil futures prices and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes, the forecast implies 134,000 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2026 will be 14.5 million (Chart 1).
Texas employment fell an annualized 1.6 percent in September, losing 18,900 jobs. Meanwhile, August employment growth was revised upward to 2.3 percent.
“Texas employment declined in September, slowing year-to-date job growth to 0.8 percent, well below the state’s long-running average of 2 percent. The moderation in job growth is consistent with current labor supply constraints that partly result from sharply lower immigration. Employment declined in most sectors, while manufacturing remained a bright spot supported by oil and gas activity, export growth and construction related to artificial intelligence expansion,” said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist.
Job losses in September were led by government and construction followed by education and health services, trade and transportation services, financial services, leisure and hospitality, and oil and gas. Of the two sectors that added jobs, manufacturing posted the strongest gains followed by information services. Employment in other services remained unchanged.
The Texas Leading Index increased during the three months ending in September, with mixed contributions across its components (Chart 2). The index was boosted by increases in the help-wanted index and the U.S. leading index and by declines in new unemployment claims and the Texas value of the dollar. Meanwhile, decreases in average weekly hours, the Texas stock index, and the real oil price were drags on the index.
Next release: Nov. 20
Methodology
The Dallas Fed’s Texas Employment Forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.
The forecast is based on the average of four models. Three models are vector autoregressions for which Texas payroll employment is regressed on the lags of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, the U.S. leading index and the Texas Leading Index, respectively. The fourth model is an autoregressive distributed lag model with regression of payroll employment on lags of payroll employment, current and lagged values of U.S. GDP growth and WTI oil prices, and Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations through March 2023. Forecasts of Texas payroll employment from this model also use forecasts of U.S. GDP growth from Blue Chip Economic Indicators and WTI oil price futures as inputs. All models include four COVID-19 dummy variables (March–June 2020).
Learn more about the Texas Employment Forecast.
Contact Information
For more information about the Texas Employment Forecast, contact Luis Torres at [email protected].
来源：达拉斯联储 · 经济更新 · dallasfed.org