达拉斯联储：德州经济2026年8月继续扩张，就业增长年化1.6%
Texas Economic Indicators
达拉斯联储称，德州经济在2026年8月继续扩张：就业增长年化1.6%（18,500个岗位），失业率降至4.4%，三个月移动平均名义时薪升至36.01美元、同比增长4.5%。达拉斯联储将2026年德州就业预测下调至1.2%；9月制造业产出继续扩张，服务业活动持平，贷款总量指数降至23但仍处于增长区间。8月成屋销售三个月移动平均下降2.2%，独栋住宅许可下降2.0%。
材料汇总德州就业、行业调查、银行贷款和住房活动数据，可用于了解当地经济扩张的不同表现。
October 05, 2026
| Texas economy dashboard (August 2026) | |||
| Job growth (annualized) May '26–August '26 |
Unemployment rate |
Avg. hourly earnings (smoothed)* |
Avg. hourly earnings growth y/y (smoothed)* |
| 1.6% | 4.4% | $36.01 | 4.5% |
The Texas economy continued to expand in August. Employment rose, the unemployment rate ticked down and wages increased. The September Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated growth in manufacturing production but flat service sector activity. Total loan volumes expanded in September, but growth across loan categories was mixed. Housing market activity remained weak, with sales and permits falling in August.
Labor market
Employment expansion broad-based
Texas employment grew an annualized 1.6 percent (18,500 jobs) in August. Payrolls rose an annualized 1.6 percent from May to August, with the three-month job growth led by professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing (Chart 1). Employment declined in information, other services, and oil and gas. Year-to-date employment in Texas is up an annualized 1.0 percent. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas Employment Forecast for 2026 was revised down to 1.2 percent.
Texas unemployment rate declines
The Texas unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4 percent in August (Chart 2). The nation's jobless rate was lower at 4.2 percent in September. Texas' labor force grew an annualized 1.3 percent in August but was nearly unchanged from August 2025.
Wages increase
The three-month moving average of nominal hourly wages in Texas increased to $36.01 in August. Year over year, Texas wages grew 4.5 percent in August, faster than the 3.1 percent rise nationally in September (Chart 3). Wages in Texas are lower than the national average ($37.73).
Texas Business Outlook Surveys
The September Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated continued strong expansion in manufacturing output but flat service sector activity. The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey headline index rose to 29.5—well above the series average of 9.7—indicating robust growth (Chart 4). The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey headline index declined to -0.9, with the near-zero reading suggesting no change in activity in September.
Banking Conditions Survey
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Banking Conditions Survey suggested a slower pace of expansion in loan volumes in September. The total loan volume index fell from a series high of 50 to 23, remaining in positive territory and indicative of growth (Chart 5). The commercial and industrial and commercial real estate loan indexes remained positive, while the residential real estate index was neutral and the consumer loan index turned negative. Survey respondents expect declines in loan demand and business activity and further deterioration in loan performance over the next six months.
Housing market
Activity in the housing market remained weak. The three-month moving average of existing-home sales declined 2.2 percent in August partly due to high mortgage rates, which ticked up to 6.7 percent (Chart 6). The three-month moving average of single-family housing permits dipped 2.0 percent in August as builders pulled back amid sluggish demand.
NOTE: Data may not match previously published numbers due to revisions.
About Texas Economic Indicators
Questions or suggestions can be addressed to Dylan Council. Texas Economic Indicators publishes monthly after Texas employment data are released.
来源：达拉斯联储 · 经济更新 · dallasfed.org