达拉斯联储：德州2025年就业增长预测降至1.3%，8月就业增长加快
Dallas Fed: Texas employment forecast softens despite strong August job growth
达拉斯联储发布的德州就业预测显示，2025年就业人数预计增长1.3%，低于上月预测的1.5%；预测的80%置信区间为1.0%至1.6%，下调主要源于第一季度就业数据基准修订。预测意味着全年增加180,400个岗位，2025年12月就业人数将达1,440万。德州8月就业年化增长3.2%，高于7月经下修后的0.4%；州失业率升至4.1%，各主要都会区失业率均上升。
News Releases
September 22, 2025
DALLAS—The Texas Employment Forecast released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates jobs will increase 1.3 percent in 2025, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.0 to 1.6 percent.
That is down from the 1.5 percent growth forecasted last month, a downshift that is largely a result of benchmark revisions to first quarter employment data.
The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes.
"Employment growth accelerated in August bringing year-to-date job growth to 1.2 percent, which is still below Texas' long-term trend of 2.0 percent," said Luis Torres, Dallas Fed senior business economist. "Seasonal factors related to the beginning of the school year could be affecting the August numbers. One or two more months of data may be needed to confirm that a reacceleration of job growth has occurred. Gains in employment were led by leisure and hospitality and health services jobs. Trade and transportation, government, and professional and business services jobs also registered strong gains. Manufacturing, financial services and other services recorded job losses."
Additional key takeaways from the latest Dallas Fed report:
- The forecast implies 180,400 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2025 will be 14.4 million.
- Texas employment increased by an annualized 3.2 percent in August after an increase of 0.4 percent in July, which was revised down.
The unemployment rate, which takes into account changes in the total labor force along with other factors, increased in each of the major Texas metros, including Austin–Round Rock, Brownsville–Harlingen, Dallas–Plano–Irving, El Paso, Fort Worth–Arlington, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land, Laredo, and San Antonio–New Braunfels, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
The Texas statewide unemployment rate increased to 4.1 percent in August.
Find out more about the Texas Employment Forecast, plus additional information on seasonally adjusted and benchmarked Texas jobs data and metro unemployment rates.
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Media contact:
Jon Prior
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: 214-922-6857
Email: [email protected]
来源：达拉斯联储 · 新闻发布 · dallasfed.org