Exploring Apprenticeship Growth during the Past Two Economic Expansions

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The number of active registered apprenticeships in the U.S. and in the Fed’s Eighth District grew following both the Great Recession and COVID-19 recession.
From 2009 to 2019, after the Great Recession, three Eighth District states — Arkansas, Kentucky and Missouri — saw apprenticeships grow faster than the national average of 21%. From 2021 to 2025, after the COVID-19 recession, all but one Eighth District state — Indiana — outpaced the nation’s 26% growth.
Construction occupations in Eighth District states, which accounted for 53% of all apprentices, saw consistent apprenticeship growth during both recent economic expansions. Healthcare occupations also saw significant growth in apprenticeship opportunities, especially in the 2009-19 period.
Low apprenticeship program completion rates and challenges creating buy-in from employers pose risks to the future growth of this job-training model.

A productive workforce is a key ingredient to economic growth. Workers often invest a significant amount of time and money in training, taking much of the risk to establish a career with higher compensation and better benefits. Employers can also spend a lot of time and money trying to recruit and retain skilled workers.

Apprenticeship, an age-old model of job training, reduces the financial risk to workers while helping employers develop the skilled workforce they need. Apprenticeships usually have four components: learning through on-the-job training and classroom instruction to develop specific skills, mentorship, graduated wages over the path from apprentice to full-time employee, and a job beyond the term of apprenticeship. Given recent attention from policymakers to increasing the number of active apprentices, it is important to understand trends among apprenticeship programs and explore their potential drivers and constraints.

This blog post describes growth rates in registered apprenticeships in Eighth Federal Reserve DistrictHeadquartered in St. Louis, the Eighth District covers all of Arkansas, most of Missouri, and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee. states and examines trends across occupations. The analysis uses data from the Registered Apprenticeship Partners Information Database System.

Two Periods for Studying Apprenticeship Changes

First, I will look at how the numbers of active apprentices have changed over two distinct time frames. The U.S. economy was expanding during both of these periods, providing a similar point in the business cycle for comparison.Registered apprenticeship data used in this analysis are annual and do not exactly match National Bureau of Economic Research-defined recession and expansion dates. Measured monthly, the Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, and the COVID-19 recession began in February 2020 and ended in April 2020. The current economic expansion began in April 2020.

Period 1: 2009-19 (recovery from the Great Recession)
Period 2: 2021-25 (recovery from the COVID-19 recession)

Findings on Apprenticeship Growth in the Eighth District

The Great Recession had an adverse effect on apprenticeship growth. Five out of the seven Eighth District states saw a decrease in active apprentices from 2008 to 2009, during the recession. Arkansas experienced a decline of 31% between those years, the largest among Eighth District states. After the Great Recession, apprenticeship numbers recovered both in the Eighth District and nationally. (See the first figure below.) From 2009 to 2019, Arkansas, Kentucky and Missouri each saw apprenticeship growth rates above 30%, higher than the national average of 21%.

In the economic expansion following the COVID-19 recession, growth in the number of active apprentices has outpaced the national average in all but one Eighth District state — Indiana. From 2021 to 2025, every Eighth District state except Indiana and Illinois saw apprenticeships increase 35% or more. It’s important to note that, growth rates aside, a headcount of active apprentices varies significantly by state. For example, in 2019, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri each had more than 15,000 active apprentices, whereas Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee each had approximately 6,000 active apprentices.

One strategy for growing the overall number of active apprentices on the job has been to expand apprenticeships to different occupations. The second figure plots apprenticeship growth in the 10 occupations that had the greatest number of apprentices in 2025. Data are for Eighth District states and broken out into the two periods described earlier.

Occupations in construction and extraction saw consistent growth in both periods. These occupations also have by far the largest number of active apprentices. In 2025, apprentices in these occupations accounted for 53% of all apprentices within the Eighth District states. Additionally, on a national level, employment in construction occupations is projected to grow in the next 10 years, and the median annual wage is higher than average.

Eighth District apprenticeships in the healthcare sector have also grown, especially during the 2009-19 period. Nationally, employment in healthcare occupations is expected to grow quicker than the average rate for all occupations. Healthcare practitioner and technical occupations pay substantially more than the median annual wage, while healthcare support occupations pay lower than the median annual wage.

On the other hand, occupations in computers and math, architecture and engineering, and transportation and material moving experienced significant apprenticeship growth in Eighth District states between 2009 and 2019, but declines in the more recent expansion. The most pronounced decline was among occupations in computers and math, which saw active apprenticeships decrease almost 60% between 2021 and 2025. Nationally, employment in these occupations is projected to increase faster than the average for all occupations, and in 2025 the median annual wage for both computer occupations and math occupations was more than twice the average across all jobs.

Although apprenticeships have seen growth in recent years, organizations working to advance this model of job training have concerns about future growth. Two of the main concerns are low completion rates and difficulty in creating employer buy-in.

Key Constraints to Apprenticeship Growth

Completion Rates

In 2024, the national completion rate for registered apprenticeships was 46%. That means 1 in 2 apprentices who began a program dropped out. In Eighth District states, completion rates ranged from 33% (Mississippi) to 58% (Illinois). For comparison, the national six-year completion rate for postsecondary education at either two-year or four-year institutions was 61%. Many factors might impact whether apprentices complete their programs (PDF), including access to childcare, the quality of instruction, the length of the apprenticeship, and even the culture at the organization or in the occupation itself. Providing supportive services for apprentices could help increase completion rates, but it would also add to the programs’ costs.

Employer Buy-in

A review of research suggested that employers’ return on investment after five years of apprentices having completed their programs ranged from $1.32 to $2.49. In other words, for every dollar invested in an apprenticeship program, an employer could expect a return of between $1.32 and $2.49. Whether apprenticeship programs are a worthy investment will depend on a particular employer and the pathways available to them for recruiting skilled workers.

Some employers may be hesitant to start a program because of difficulties associated with navigating the administration of registered apprenticeships and concerns about apprentices leaving for a competitor. Programs like the American Manufacturing Apprenticeship Incentive Fund create incentives for employers to sponsor and grow apprenticeship opportunities. The fund operates through a pay-for-performance model, in which programs receive $3,500 per apprentice who successfully completes training.

Conclusion

Although the number of apprentices declined in the Great Recession, states in the Eighth District were able to recover, and this training model continued growing. While occupations in construction are leading both in total numbers of apprentices and growth in recent years, other occupations seem to be adopting the apprenticeship model as well. However, low completion rates and employer buy-in remain challenges.

The author would like to thank Theresa Dunne of the Philadelphia Fed and Nicole Summers-Gabr and Charles Gascon of the St. Louis Fed for their comments during the development of this blog post.

Notes

Headquartered in St. Louis, the Eighth District covers all of Arkansas, most of Missouri, and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.
Registered apprenticeship data used in this analysis are annual and do not exactly match National Bureau of Economic Research-defined recession and expansion dates. Measured monthly, the Great Recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, and the COVID-19 recession began in February 2020 and ended in April 2020. The current economic expansion began in April 2020.