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2026年10月19日

达拉斯—达拉斯联邦储备银行发布的《德克萨斯就业预测》显示，2026年就业岗位将增长0.9%，置信区间为0.6%至1.2%。

这比上个月的预测有所下降。

该预测基于四个模型的平均值，这些模型包括预计的全国GDP、原油期货价格以及德克萨斯州和美国的领先指数。

“9月德克萨斯州就业人数下降，使年初至今的就业增长放缓至0.8%，远低于该州长期平均的2%。”达拉斯联储高级商业经济学家路易斯·托雷斯表示，“就业增长的放缓与当前劳动力供应限制一致，这部分是由于移民大幅减少所致。大多数行业就业人数下降，而制造业则是一个亮点，这得益于石油和天然气活动、出口增长以及与人工智能扩展相关的建筑业。”

最新达拉斯联储报告中的其他关键要点：

该预测表明，今年该州将新增134,000个就业岗位，到2026年12月，就业人数将达到1450万。
9月，德克萨斯州就业人数年化下降了1.6%。8月的就业人数增长了2.3%，这一数据被向上修订了。

根据达拉斯联储的季节性调整数据，9月布朗斯维尔-哈林根、埃尔帕索、沃思堡-阿灵顿-葡萄藤以及休斯顿-帕萨迪纳-伍德兰兹的失业率下降。

奥斯汀-圆石和达拉斯-普兰诺-艾佛里特的失业率保持不变。

圣安东尼奥-新布朗费斯的失业率上升。

9月，德克萨斯州整体失业率保持不变，为4.4%。

阅读完整报告，了解有关德克萨斯就业预测的更多信息，以及季节性调整和基准化的德克萨斯州就业数据和都会区失业率：德克萨斯就业预测 - Dallasfed.org

媒体联系人：
\n乔恩·普里尔
\n达拉斯联邦储备银行
\n电话：214-922-6857
\n电子邮件：jon.prior@dal.frb.org

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